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Media Monopolies Increase Misperceptions about Immigration: Evidence from German Local Newspapers (with Hanno Hilbig). R&R, British Journal of Political Science. [Abstract]
We examine how local news monopolies affect misperceptions about the size of the immigrant population in Germany. We propose a theoretical framework in which heterogeneous information from different local news outlets diffuses through social interactions. We posit that indirect exposure to information from multiple sources leads to more accurate beliefs in competitive markets. To causally identify the effect of local news monopolies on misperceptions, we exploit overlapping newspaper coverage areas as a source of exogenous variation in the number of available outlets. We estimate that local news monopolies increase misperceptions by 38%. We empirically demonstrate that the effect of media monopolies hinges on social interactions. For individuals with fewer close social contacts, misperceptions remain unaffected by local news monopolies. Our results suggest that consolidation in the market for news decreases constituents' knowledge about critical policy issues.
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Freedom of Movement Restrictions Inhibit the Social Integration of Refugees (with Hanno Hilbig). R&R, Journal of Politics. [Abstract]
How do freedom of movement restrictions affect refugee integration? While a growing body of research studies the initial allocation of refugees, there is little causal evidence on subsequent policies that restrict residential mobility. We study a contentious law in Germany, which barred newly arrived refugees from relocating to a location different from the one they were assigned to. To identify the causal effect of the movement restriction on integration, we utilize a sharp date cutoff that governs whether refugees are affected by the policy. We demonstrate that restricting freedom of movement had pronounced negative effects on refugees’ sense of belonging in Germany, while increasing identification with their home countries. In addition, the policy decreased social engagement, but had no detectable effects on contact with natives or co-ethnics. We argue that detrimental effects stem from the fact that discriminatory policies send a negative signal about the inclusiveness of the host society.
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Out-group Threat and Xenophobic Hate Crimes — Evidence of Local Intergroup Conflict Dynamics between Immigrants and Natives (with Daniel Bischof and Markus Wagner). [Abstract]
This study examines the relationship between crimes attributed to immigrants and hate crimes against refugees at the local level. We argue that localized crime events attributed to immigrants can lead to xenophobic responses whereby natives exact retribution against uninvolved out-group members. We investigate such intergroup conflict dynamics between immigrants and natives in Germany, a country that has experienced a sharp increase in both the foreign-born population and hate crimes in recent years. Our empirical analysis leverages fine-grained geocoded data on more than 9,400 hate crimes and 60,000 immigrant-attributed crime events between 2015 and 2019. Using a regression discontinuity in time design (RDiT), we show that the daily probability of hate crimes doubles in the immediate aftermath of an immigrant crime event in a local community. Our results speak to growing concerns about xenophobic violence in Western democracies.
- Refugee Labor Market Access Increases Support for Migration (with Anselm Hager and Hanno Hilbig). [Abstract]
Does the economic integration of refugees affect public attitudes toward migration? We assess this pertinent question by making use of a recent policy change in Germany, where the government significantly eased labor market access for refugees in 85% of its employment districts. Using administrative employment data spanning ten years, we show that the policy increased refugee employment by 50%. The policy also had a positive effect on natives' attitudes toward migration. Areas exposed to more refugees in the labor market were two percentage points more likely to vote for pro-migration parties across both state and federal elections. Using panel evidence, we corroborate that the policy led to more favorable attitudes toward migration among natives. Turning to mechanisms, we find that increasing refugee labor market access had no effect on natives' economic situation, but arguably facilitated positive native-refugee interactions in the workplace.
- Citizen Demands and Strategic Responsiveness in Autocratic Regimes - Evidence from the German Democratic Republic (with Hans Lueders and Hanno Hilbig). [Abstract]
Do autocrats strategically respond to citizen demands to ensure regime survival? To answer this question, we assemble a novel panel of housing-related petitions to the government of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) in combination with data on housing construction between 1945 and 1989. Exploiting the timing of the largest GDR housing program, we employ a difference-in-differences design to show that the housing program was targeted at regions with higher rates of petitioning. We then demonstrate that strategic concerns about regime survival drove responsiveness. We show that the regime was more responsive to petitions from counties with export industries and counties with high collective action potential. Finally, we show that responsiveness lastingly impacts regime support. In the first democratic elections after the demise of the GDR, the authoritarian successor party received more votes in regions targeted by the housing program.
- Local Newspaper Decline and Political Polarization (with Fabio Ellger, Hanno Hilbig, and Philipp Tillmann) [Abstract]
How does consolidation in the market for local news affect electoral polarization? A growing literature recognizes that political polarization partially stems from changes in the media landscape. While a range of countries have experienced marked declines in the number of local news outlets as well as news readership, there is little work that explores how local news exits affect polarization. To study this relationship, we draw on a novel panel data set of the coverage areas of all German newspapers between 1979 and 2009. Using a difference-in-differences design, we demonstrate that newspaper exits increase electoral polarization, as measured by a common polarization scale as well as by the vote share of parties further from the center. We propose that voters consume more national news when local news outlets exit. As a result, voters are increasingly exposed to politics at the national level, where decision making is more ideologically charged and less consensual than at the local level.
- World War I, Nationalism, and the Rise of the Nazi Party (with Felix Haass, Alexander De Juan, Carlo Koos, and Thomas Tichelbaecker).
